New Delhi: The opinion poll conducted by the CNN-IBN, The Week and CSDS claims there is a clear wave in favour of the BJP.
While it will certainly retain power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh, the BJP is set to return to power in Rajasthan. However, a hung Assembly likely in Delhi with BJP emerging as the single largest party.
How will it impact national politics? If the outcome is to believe, NDA will gain significantly at the cost of UPA. While UPA may end up between 134 and 142, NDA is likely to bag 187-195 seats in total.
There are 72 parliamentary constituencies in these four states out of which BJP is likely to bag as many as 57 seats. That’s 27 seats more than it won in the 2009 elections, and 15 more than it was projected to win in a survey conducted by the same agency in July 2013. As for the Congress, its tally is projected to drop by 28 seats, from 40 in 2009 to just 12.
However, the survey was limited to these four states only, leaving 471 seats yet to cover. So there is every possibility of a significant change as the general elections are at least six months away from today.
Of course, this isn’t a prediction but an exercise. The actual voting in other states will be impacted by many factors including alliances with regional parties who are certainly going to play the role of kingmaker.
However, going by the size of crowd Modi has been drawing in the Hindi heartland of UP and Bihar in last one month, a change of fortune for BJP can not be ruled out despite tall claims by the Congress and other friendly parties.
